Tattalin Arzikin Bitcoin Na Asali: Nazarin Samarwa, Bukatar Ciniki, da Kima

1. Gabatarwa

Bitcoin yana wakiltar gwaji na musamman na zamantakewa da tattalin arziki, wanda ya haɗa littafin lissafi mai rarrabawa tare da tsarin ƙarfafawa na kasuwa don tsaro (haƙa ma'adinai). Wannan takarda tana ba da nazarin tattalin arziki na asali wanda ke mai da hankali kan hulɗar tsakanin wadata hashrate ta masu haƙa ma'adinai (samarwa) da bukatar Bitcoin don gudanar da ciniki. Babban dalili shine fahimtar abubuwan da ke motsa ƙimar Bitcoin, musamman yayin da hanyar sadarwa ke canzawa daga tallafin ladan zuwa tsarin da kudade ke motsa shi, da kuma tantance hasashe game da rashin tushen tattalin arziki na farashinsa.

2. Tsarin Tattalin Arziki na Asali

Ana ƙirƙirar tattalin arzikin Bitcoin ta hanyar manyan wakilai guda biyu: masu haƙa ma'adinai (masu samarwa) da masu amfani/masu amfani.

2.1 Wadata Mai Haƙa Ma'adinai & Farashin Samarwa

Masu haƙa ma'adinai suna ba da ƙarfin lissafi (hashrate, $H$) don tsare hanyar sadarwa da sarrafa ciniki. Ana auna abin da suka samar da su a cikin hash a kowace dakika. Wadata hashrate tana faruwa ne ta hanyar haɓaka riba, inda kudaden shiga suka fito daga ladan ($R$) da kudaden ciniki ($F$), kuma farashi ya haɗa da kashe kuɗin jari (kayan aiki) da kashe kuɗin aiki (makamashi, aiki). Ƙarƙashin cikakkiyar gasa, farashin da ya kai ga samar da raka'a ɗaya na hashrate yayi daidai da kudaden shiga da ake tsammani. Wani tsarin farashin samarwa na asali, kamar yadda aka ambata daga Hayes (2015), yana nuna alaƙa tsakanin farashin Bitcoin ($P$), hashrate ($H$), da farashin makamashi ($E$).

2.2 Bukatar Ciniki na Masu Amfani

Masu amfani suna buƙatar Bitcoin da farko don sauƙaƙe ciniki a hanyar sadarwarsa. Takardar ta fara ɗaukar ƙirar da aka sauƙaƙa inda buƙatar ta kasance kawai don ciniki, ba tare da la'akari da tasirin tari (ajiyar ƙima) da hasashe ba. An ƙaddara cewa buƙatar ciniki ($D_T$) aiki ne na farashin Bitcoin da adadin ayyukan tattalin arziki da ake so akan layi.

3. Nazarin Ma'auni na Kasuwa

3.1 Ra'ayin Farashin da ba a ƙayyade ba

Babban hujjar takardar ita ce yanayin ma'auni na kasuwa—inda buƙatar ciniki na Bitcoin ta yi daidai da "wadata" na ruwa da Bitcoin ke samarwa ta hanyar masu haƙa ma'adinai—bai isa ba don ƙayyade musayar kuɗi ta musamman ($P$). Tsarin farashin samarwa yana ƙayyade wadata hashrate don farashi da aka ba, ba farashin kansa ba. Don haka, a cikin wannan tsarin asali wanda ya keɓe tari, farashin Bitcoin ba shi da tushen tattalin arziki kuma yana da 'yanci ya canza bisa ra'ayin hasashe.

3.2 Rawar Rage Rabo & Kudade

Nazarin yana nuna tasirin abubuwan "rage rabo" na lokaci-lokaci, waɗanda ke rage ladan. Yana jayayya cewa tasirin kai tsaye kan farashi na iya zama mara ƙarfi. Muhimmin abin da ke tattare da shi shine tilastawa canzawa zuwa kudaden ciniki waɗanda suka zama mafi girma a cikin kudaden shiga na mai haƙa ma'adinai. Takardar ta yi gargadin cewa haɓakar kudade na iya cutar da gasar Bitcoin (misali, da Ethereum) kuma raguwar kudaden shiga na mai haƙa ma'adinai na iya yin mummunan tasiri ga ra'ayin Bitcoin a matsayin amintaccen ajiyar ƙima, wanda zai shafi farashinsa a kaikaice.

4. Tsarin Fasaha & Tsarin Lissafi

Ma'anar tattalin arziki tana da goyan baya ga mahimman alaƙar lissafi:

Ribar Mai Haƙa Ma'adinai ($\pi$): $\pi = (R + F) \cdot \frac{H_i}{H_{total}} - C(H_i)$ inda $H_i$ hashrate ne na mutum ɗaya, $H_{total}$ hashrate ne na hanyar sadarwa, kuma $C$ aikin farashi ne.
Yanayin Farashin Mafi Ƙarfi (Ma'auni na Gasa): Ƙarƙashin gasa, masu haƙa ma'adinai suna shiga/fita har riba ta zama sifili. Wannan yana nuna matsakaicin farashin kowane hash yayi daidai da ladan da ake tsammani na kowane hash: $\frac{C(H)}{H} \approx \frac{R+F}{H_{total}} \cdot P$. Ana iya sake tsara wannan don nuna wadata hashrate a matsayin aiki na farashi: $H_{supply} = f(P, R, F, E)$.
Yanayin Ma'auni: Ƙirar tana nuna ma'auni inda ƙimar dalar Bitcoin da ake buƙata don ciniki ta yi daidai da ƙimar ladan da masu haƙa ma'adinai suka samu (an sauƙaƙe): $D_T(P) \cdot P = (R + F) \cdot P$. Wannan lissafin, duk da haka, sau da yawa yana sauƙaƙawa ta hanyar da ta soke $P$, wanda ke kaiwa ga ƙarshen farashin da ba a ƙayyade ba.

5. Mahallin Ƙwaƙwalwar Aiki & Binciken da ya Gabata

Takardar ta sanya kanta a cikin yanayin da ake takaddama a kai. Ta ambaci bincike kamar Hayes (2016, 2019) da Abbatemarco et al. (2018) waɗanda suka gano alaƙa tsakanin farashin Bitcoin da tsarin farashin samarwa. Akasin haka, ta lura da aikin Baldan da Zen (2020) waɗanda ba su gano irin wannan alaƙa ba, suna danganta bambance-bambance ga lokuta daban-daban da yanayin kasuwa (ma'auni da rashin daidaito, kumfa). Gudunmawar marubucin ita ce hujjar ka'idar cewa waɗannan ƙirar suna ƙayyade wadata, ba farashi ba, kuma ma'auni na iya zama ɗan gajeren lokaci ko ba na musamman ba.

6. Ra'ayi Mai Ma'ana na Manazarta

6.1 Hasashe na Asali

Wannan takarda tana ba da muhimmin gargaɗi na gaskiya: Farashin Bitcoin, a cikin tsarin ciniki mai amfani kawai, ba shi da tushe a asali. Ka manta da labarin "zinariyar dijital" na ɗan lokaci; idan mutane sun yi amfani da BTC kawai don biyan abubuwa, ƙimarsa zata kasance hasashe kawai, wanda ra'ayi ya ƙaddara, ba tushen farashi ba. Wannan yana ƙalubalantar imani na asali na masu saka hannun jari da yawa waɗanda ke nuna farashin haƙa ma'adinai a matsayin ƙasan farashi. Marubuci ba kawai yana ƙirƙira ƙira ba; suna fallasa wata yuwuwar rauni na wanzuwa.

6.2 Tsarin Ma'ana

Hujjar tana da sauƙi kuma mai lalacewa. 1) Masu haƙa ma'adinai suna ba da hashrate bisa kudaden shiga da ake tsammani (aikin farashi). 2) Masu amfani suna buƙatar BTC don amfanin cinikinsa. 3) A cikin ma'auni, ƙimar dalar buƙatar ciniki dole ta dace da kudaden shiga na mai haƙa ma'adinai. Amma ga abin da ya fi ban mamaki: a cikin wani tsari mai sauƙi, ma'aunin farashi ($P$) ya soke daga ɓangarorin biyu na wannan lissafin ma'auni. Tsarin yana ƙayyade matakin aikin tattalin arziki (hashrate, adadin ciniki), amma ba farashin raka'a na kadarorin da ke sauƙaƙa shi ba. Farashin ma'auni ne mai 'yanci, yana buɗe kofa ga saurin canjin da muke gani.

6.3 Ƙarfi & Kurakurai

Ƙarfi: Babban ƙarfin takardar shine mai da hankali sosai kan ƙa'idodin farko. Ta hanyar cire hayaniyar hasashe da tari, tana ware tattalin arzikin amfanin ciniki na asali kuma ta bayyana rashin isasshensa. Gargadin game da tsaro da kudade da gasa da Ethereum yana da hankali kuma ya yi daidai da muhawarar Layer-2 da kasuwar kudade na yanzu.
Kuskure Mai Ma'ana: Sauƙaƙan ƙirar da ke haifar da mutuwa shine keɓance farkon tari/bukatar ajiyar ƙima. Wannan kamar nazarin tattalin arzikin zinariya yayin da ake yin watsi da rawarsa a matsayin kadarin ajiya. Kamar yadda Bankin Ƙasashen Duniya (BIS) ya lura a cikin aikinsu akan ƙimar cryptocurrency, babban abin da ke motsa farashin kadarorin crypto shine hasashe da buƙatar saka hannun jari, ba amfanin ciniki ba. Ƙarshen "farashin da ba a ƙayyade ba" kusan zance ne da zarar ka cire babban abin da ke motsa buƙatar. Duk da haka, an yarda da wannan kuskuren a wani ɓangare kuma ya zama gadar takardar zuwa gaskiya: farashin yana saita ta hanyar abubuwan da ƙirar ta keɓance tun farko (tari/hasashe).

6.4 Hasashe masu Aiki

Ga masu saka hannun jari: Daina dogaro da "farashin haƙa ma'adinai" a matsayin ƙasa mai ƙarfi. Sakamakon ma'auni ne mai ƙarfi, ba shigarwa mai zaman kanta ba. Faɗuwar farashi mai dorewa zai iya kuma zai tura hashrate kashe layi, yana sake daidaita tushen farashi ƙasa.
Ga masu haɓaka hanyar sadarwa/masu ba da shawara: Takardar tana ƙara ƙararrawar gargaɗi kan canjin kudade. Dogaro da manyan kudade don tsare hanyar sadarwa mai darajar tiriliyan daloli wasa ne mai haɗari wanda ke ba da labarin biyan kuɗi ga masu fafatawa. Dole ne a mai da hankali kan hanyoyin haɓakawa (kamar sabbin abubuwan da aka gani a cikin taswirar Ethereum mai mayar da hankali kan rollup) waɗanda ke kiyaye kudade ƙasa yayin da suke tsare ƙima ta wasu hanyoyi (misali, saka hannun jari, sake saka hannun jari).
Ga masu bincike: Gwada abubuwan da ƙirar ke nufi a lokutan gwamnati daban-daban. Shin farashi ya zama mafi alaƙa da ma'aunin amfanin akan layi (misali, NVT Ratio) kuma ya ragu da hashrate a lokacin kasuwannin beyar lokacin da hasashe ya ragu? Wannan zai iya tabbatar da hasashe na asali.

7. Tsarin Nazari: Wani Sauƙaƙan Hali

Hali: Ɗauki wani lokaci mai sauƙaƙa inda ladan $R = 6.25$ BTC, matsakaicin kuɗi $F = 0.1$ BTC/block, da farashin makamashi na duniya $E = \$0.05$ a kowace kWh. Tsarin farashin samarwa zai iya nuna hashrate hanyar sadarwa $H$ wanda ke da dorewa a tattalin arziki a wani farashin Bitcoin da aka ba $P_1$.
Binciken Ma'auni: Idan buƙatar ciniki na mai amfani, wanda aka ƙima a cikin daloli, $D_T = \$10$ miliyan a kowace rana, kuma jimlar kudaden shiga na mai haƙa ma'adinai na yini a cikin daloli shine $(6.25 + 0.1) \cdot P_1 \cdot 144 \approx 914.4 \cdot P_1$, yanayin ma'auni $10,000,000 = 914.4 \cdot P_1$ zai ba da shawarar $P_1 \approx \$10,940$. Duk da haka, idan buƙatar hasashe ta ɓace kuma farashin ya faɗi zuwa $P_2 = \$5,000$, ƙirar ta nuna masu haƙa ma'adinai ba za su yi riba ba, hashrate $H$ zai ragu har sai an sami sabon ma'auni mai ƙarancin farashi. Lissafin buƙatar ciniki $10,000,000 = 914.4 \cdot P_2$ baya nan kuma, yana nuna cewa ainihin farashin "ma'auni" ya dogara ne da matakin aikin tattalin arziki wanda kansa ya dogara da farashi. Wannan madauwari yana kwatanta rashin ƙayyadewa.

8. Hangen Nan Gaba & Kalubale

Makomar tattalin arzikin Bitcoin ya dogara ne da warware tashin hankalin da aka gano a cikin takardar:

Matsalar Kasafin Tsaro: Yayin da ladan ya ragu, samo isasshen tsaro (hashrate) daga kudade kawai babban kalubale ne. Manyan kudade suna adawa da amfani da shi azaman tsarin kuɗin lantarki mai amfani da abokan gaba.
Gasa da Dandamalin Kwangilar Hikima: Kamar yadda aka ambata, Ethereum da sauran sarƙoƙi suna ba da amfani mai sauƙi, suna iya jawo kudaden shiga da hankalin mai haɓakawa. Makomar Bitcoin na iya dogara ne da ingantaccen yanayin Layer 2 (Hanyar Sadarwa ta Lightning, ɓangaren sarƙoƙi) waɗanda ke tara ciniki, suna kiyaye kudaden tushe ƙasa yayin ba da damar amfani da adadi mai yawa.
Juyin Halittar Masu Motsa Bukatar: Labarin ajiyar ƙima dole ne ya ƙarfafa don samar da kwanciyar hankali na farashi da ƙima wanda ke ƙarfafa haƙa ma'adinai ba tare da manyan kudade ba. Wannan ya haɗa da ƙarin amfani da hukumomi, bayyanannen ƙa'idoji, da haɗawa cikin kuɗin gargajiya.
Daidaitawar Fasaha: Sabbin abubuwa a cikin ingancin haƙa ma'adinai (misali, ASICs na gaba, amfani da makamashi da ba a yi amfani da shi ba) na iya rage farashin lanƙwasa, yana taimakawa tsare hanyar sadarwa a ƙananan farashi.

Hanyar dogon lokaci za a ƙaddara ta ko Bitcoin zai iya canzawa cikin nasara daga tsarin tsaro da tallafi ke motsa shi zuwa tsarin dorewa, na tushen kuɗi ko madadin ƙarfafawa ba tare da lalata rarrabawa ko tsaro ba—canji wanda babban tsarin kuɗi ba ya buƙatar ƙirƙira a cikin ainihin lokaci.

9. Nassoshi

Perepelitsa, M. (2022). Tattalin Arzikin Bitcoin Na Asali: daga Samarwa da Bukatar Ciniki zuwa Ƙima. arXiv:2211.07035.
Hayes, A. (2015). Farashin Samarwa da Farashin Bitcoin. SSRN.
Hayes, A. (2019). Farashin Bitcoin da Farashinsa na Samarwa na Mafi Ƙarfi: Goyon Baya ga Ƙimar Asali. Applied Economics Letters.
Baldan, F., & Zen, F. (2020). Farashin Samarwa na Bitcoin da Alakar sa da Farashinsa. Finance Research Letters.
Garcia, D., et al. (2014). Alamun Dijital na Kumfa: Zagayowar Amsa Tsakanin Alamomin Zamantakewa da Tattalin Arziki a cikin Tattalin Arzikin Bitcoin. Journal of the Royal Society Interface.
Cheah, E.-T., & Fry, J. (2015). Kumfa na Hasashe a Kasuwannin Bitcoin? Wani Bincike na Ƙwaƙwalwar Aiki a cikin Ƙimar Asali na Bitcoin. Economics Letters.
Bankin Ƙasashen Duniya (BIS). (2022). Rahoton Tattalin Arziki na Shekara. Babi na III: Tsarin kuɗi na gaba.
Abbatemarco, N., et al. (2018). Bitcoin: wani bincike na ƙwaƙwalwar aiki kan alaƙar tsakanin farashi, hashrate da amfani da makamashi.